Phoster

Research and Development

Prediction in the Behavioral and Social Sciences

Introduction

Prediction and Explanation in Social Systems by Jake M. Hofman, Amit Sharma and Duncan J. Watts, Integrating Explanation and Prediction in Computational Social Science by Jake M. Hofman, Duncan J. Watts, Susan Athey, Filiz Garip, Thomas L. Griffiths, Jon Kleinberg, Helen Margetts, Sendhil Mullainathan, Matthew J. Salganik, Simine Vazire, Alessandro Vespignani and Tal Yarkoni, Exploring Limits to Prediction in Complex Social Systems by Travis Martin, Jake M. Hofman, Amit Sharma, Ashton Anderson and Duncan J. Watts, The History of Agent-based Modeling in the Social Sciences by Carl O. Retzlaff, Martina Ziefle and André C. Valdez, Using Agent-based Models for Prediction in Complex and Wicked Systems by J. Gareth Polhill, Matthew Hare, Tom Bauermann, David Anzola, Erika Palmer, Doug Salt and Patrycja Antosz and Social Prediction: A New Research Paradigm Based on Machine Learning by Yunsong Chen, Xiaogang Wu, Anning Hu, Guangye He and Guodong Ju.

Behavioral Sciences

Behavior Computing: Modeling, Analysis, Mining and Decision edited by Longbing Cao and S. Yu Philip, Social Computing, Behavioral Modeling, and Prediction edited by Huan Liu, John Salerno and Michael J. Young, Deep Learning for Predicting Human Strategic Behavior by Jason S. Hartford, Predicting Human Decisions with Behavioral Theories and Machine Learning by Ori Plonsky, Reut Apel, Eyal Ert, Moshe Tennenholtz, David Bourgin, Joshua C. Peterson, Daniel Reichman, Thomas L. Griffiths, Stuart J. Russell, Evan C. Carter, James F. Cavanagh and Ido Erev and To Predict Human Choice, Consider the Context by Ori Plonsky and Ido Erev.

Cognitive Modeling

Computational Modeling of Cognition and Behavior by Simon Farrell and Stephan Lewandowsky, Cognition and Multi-agent Interaction: From Cognitive Modeling to Social Simulation edited by Ron Sun and Behavioral Modeling and Simulation: From Individuals to Societies by Greg L. Zacharias, Jean E. Macmillan and Susan B. van Hemel.

Social Simulation

The History of Agent-based Modeling in the Social Sciences by Carl O. Retzlaff, Martina Ziefle and André C. Valdez, Computational History: From Big Data to Big Simulations by Andrea Nanetti and Siew Ann Cheong, Big Data, Agents, and Machine Learning: Towards a Data-driven Agent-based Modeling Approach by Hamdi Kavak, Jose J. Padilla, Christopher J. Lynch and Saikou Y. Diallo, Agent-based Models in Empirical Social Research by Elizabeth Bruch and Jon Atwell, Using Empirical Data for Designing, Calibrating and Validating Simulation Models by Klaus G. Troitzsch, Using Agent-based Models for Prediction in Complex and Wicked Systems by J. Gareth Polhill, Matthew Hare, Tom Bauermann, David Anzola, Erika Palmer, Doug Salt and Patrycja Antosz, General Principles of Learning-based Multi-agent Systems by David H. Wolpert, Kevin R. Wheeler and Kagan Tumer, Learning in Multi-agent Systems by Eduardo Alonso, Mark d'Inverno, Daniel Kudenko, Michael Luck and Jason Noble, Multiagent Learning: Basics, Challenges, and Prospects by Karl Tuyls and Gerhard Weiss, A Survey of Learning in Multiagent Environments: Dealing with Non-stationarity by Pablo Hernandez-Leal, Michael Kaisers, Tim Baarslag and Enrique M. de Cote, Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning: A Selective Overview of Theories and Algorithms by Kaiqing Zhang, Zhuoran Yang and Tamer Başar and Deep Reinforcement Learning for Multiagent Systems: A Review of Challenges, Solutions, and Applications by Thanh T. Nguyen, Ngoc D. Nguyen and Saeid Nahavandi.

Narratology

Story Comprehension for Predicting What Happens Next by Snigdha Chaturvedi, Haoruo Peng and Dan Roth, Narrative-based Representations of Social Knowledge: Their Construction and Use in Comprehension, Memory, and Judgment by Robert S. Wyer, Rashmi Adaval and Stanley J. Colcombe and Understanding and Predicting Social Events: The Effects of Narrative Construction on Inference Generation by Kristi A. Costabile and Stanley B. Klein.

The Web and Social Media

Mining the Web to Predict Future Events by Kira Radinsky and Eric Horvitz, Predicting the News of Tomorrow Using Patterns in Web Search Queries by Kira Radinsky, Sagie Davidovich and Shaul Markovitch and Predicting the Future with Social Media by Sitaram Asur and Bernardo A. Huberman.

Education

Student Modeling Approaches: A Literature Review for the Last Decade by Konstantina Chrysafiadi and Maria Virvou, Predicting Students Performance in Educational Data Mining by Bo Guo, Rui Zhang, Guang Xu, Chuangming Shi and Li Yang, Multilevel Modeling of Educational Data edited by Ann A. O'Connell and D. Betsy McCoach, Multiagent Simulation of Learning Environments by Elizabeth Sklar and Mathew Davies, Using Simulation to Model and Understand Group Learning by Maartje Spoelstra and Elizabeth Sklar and Agent-based Modeling of Human Education Data by Yuqing Tang, Simon Parsons and Elizabeth Sklar.

Economics

Handbook of Economic Forecasting edited by Graham Elliott and Allan Timmermann, Simulating Market Dynamics: Interactions between Consumer Psychology and Social Networks by Marco A. Janssen and Wander Jager and How is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting? by Philippe G. Coulombe, Maxime Leroux, Dalibor Stevanovic and Stéphane Surprenant.

Political Science

On Prediction in Political Science by Keith Dowding and Charles Miller, Prediction, History, and Political Science by Robert Northcott and Why Forecast? The Value of Forecasting to Political Science by Keith Dowding.

History

Toward Cliodynamics – An Analytical, Predictive Science of History by Peter Turchin.